Archive for September, 2008

September 30th, 2008

Technology and Winning

A lot of hay has been made about effective “e-campaigning” in recent election cycles.  


Having advised campaigns on “e-campaigning” and “political IT” in the past I can say the two need to be seperated and clearly defined.   

Given the nature of political campaigning they are all short-staffed, overworked and often times underqualified (not a bad thing just a reality).  So often you find the youngest guy/girl on the campaign who has no more experience than they guessed right when setting up the wireless network in the office be annointed “tech person” – the “tech person” becomes the defacto point of contact for everything IT (fax machines, emails, data management, website, etc.).  

No matter how you look at e-campaigning or political IT, those portions of the campaign are no longer considered the geeky guys in the corner who send out emails rather they are integral parts to winning campaigns (emphasis on the winning)

Candidates, campaign managers, and political directors often demand esoteric mail lists of just 1/4 Independants in a certain zip code who vote absentee and believe those things appear out of thin air – think about it for a second if you had to do that personally how would you do it?  Others think that a donor database is well catalogued and safe if its sitting in an excel file on the C drive of some desktop computer that sounds like its taking off everytime you turn it on.  While even more think that if you buy an email list it will send itself.  

The above are some examples of critical tasks involved with campaigning and intersect heavily with Political IT.

You will find many campaigns believe that a website can be built in a day, cost $500 and be as functional as Barrack Obama’s because they saw the neighbor kids website and if he can do it so can we.  Others think that a viable email strategy is to load the body up with HTML, pictures, and lots of “Click Here to Contribute” buttons and send the same email to your list 2 times a day for 2 months – then wonder why they get no responses and the messages end up in SPAM folders.  More surprising to me is the fact that more campaigns spend thirty minutes setting up a myspace/facebook account and nothing more and wonder why they have no followers.  

The above are some examples of critical tasks involved with campaigning that intersect heavily with E-Campaigning.  

As you can tell there is a clear difference between E-Campaigning and Political IT and until campaigns realize that and spend equal/time and resources at it they won’t see the maximum benefit.  

Furthermore the difference in a race can be how effectively it handles E-Campaigning and Political IT.  Think about it, the very core purpose of IT is to do tasks more efficiently and effectively – if you do it right every $1 you spend optimizing your work on IT  is like spending $2 doing the same task the non-IT way – if you do it right it can be the difference maker in every  election.  


September 22nd, 2008

The Answer is Right in Front of You

I came across this site today www.fivethirtyeight.com.

If you like statistics and you like politics than this is the site for you. If you like baseball stats and you like political stats than Nate Silver could be your messiah. In short his claim to fame was picking Obama to win in NC and Hillary’s win in IN when all the polls were showing otherwise. Not only did he pick the winners but he picked the winning margin within a point in each case. Almost anyone can pick a winner but picking the winner and the margin is reserved for the truly talented.

How does he do it? Simply put he uses math and large data sets.

Nate Silver looks at a cross section of polls, demographic data, and vote history than mashes that in with weighted averages to come up with an accurate prediction of voter turnout.

Nate takes readily available data (lots of it is free) and cuts out the clutter, refines the good data, adds in some outside indicators and uses modeling programs to predict polling outcomes. The point is that Nate can predict political elections with readily available data. That is important because that means that the answer to who is going to win an election could be floating around right now – you just need the right tool to figure it out.  Now, to be clear I am not saying that campaign managers, messaging strategies, or ground operations are not needed I am saying that a data driven look at a candidates chances of winning in the thick of the campaign can be the timely catalyst to change or tweak those strategies.  

I am also not saying everyone should quit now and let Nate pickem – rather its refreshing to see someone looking at political campaigns with hard data sets rather than opinions gleaned from talking to focus groups.  
Like Nate, I believe data is a critical piece to any campaign whether it be for President or Dog Catcher and I think Nate would agree that there is enough readily available data that if used correctly can be the difference between winning and losing.

September 22nd, 2008

Welcome to the Vlytics Blog

Hello – Welcome to the Vlytics Blog!

This space will cover all things related to Vlytics plus provide tips, tricks, and the occasional insight garnered from poring over lots and lots of voter data. 

Don’t know what Vlytics is – learn more here.