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Archive: General Election

In April, we looked at likely voters in 4 key swing states and their thoughts about President Trump’s first 100 days. A lot’s happened since then – much of it seemingly bad for President Trump, including the expanding Russia investigation, unsuccessful health care legislation, and staff shake-ups at the White House. We wanted to know how Trump’s rough summer is impacting voters’ attitudes and how that might impact his fall agenda, so we went back into the field.

As President Trump approaches 100 days in office, we took a closer look at voter sentiment in 4 swing states that Obama carried in 2012 and Trump carried in 2016: Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. There has been a lot of media coverage surrounding Trump’s false claims and stalled legislative agenda. We wanted to use data to dig deeper and learn what is really driving voters’ opinions.

Logic and conventional wisdom may have you believe that Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates should spend most of their time and energy focusing on voters who fall near the middle of the political spectrum… because Republicans can rely on support of conservatives and Democrats can rely on support of liberals.

Not this year.