In April, we looked at likely voters in 4 key swing states and their thoughts about President Trump’s first 100 days. A lot’s happened since then – much of it seemingly bad for President Trump, including the expanding Russia investigation, unsuccessful health care legislation, and staff shake-ups at the White House. We wanted to know how Trump’s rough summer is impacting voters’ attitudes and how that might impact his fall agenda, so we went back into the field.
As President Trump approaches 100 days in office, we took a closer look at voter sentiment in 4 swing states that Obama carried in 2012 and Trump carried in 2016: Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. There has been a lot of media coverage surrounding Trump’s false claims and stalled legislative agenda. We wanted to use data to dig deeper and learn what is really driving voters’ opinions.
From 3.22.16 – 3.24.16 an IVR based poll was conducted in Wisconsin of likely Republican presidential primary voters. The poll was has an N = 6,182(!), weighted, stratified listed sample at the statewide level and each individual congressional district. Yes, each congressional district. Delegate math junkies here is your fix.
The math says Trump can’t get the votes of women in his own party; he will need to consider rethinking his strategy before he even looks at his odds of capturing Democratic and nonpartisan voters.
Who are Trump’s people? While bricks may be the building blocks to Trump’s skyscrapers, we’re going to use statistics to see what demographics are the building blocks of someone who likes Donald Trump.